Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 12.474586 15.275805 18.397316 22.110543 26.383310 31.121950 36.749790
2025-12-07 8.204114 11.695381 16.033468 21.718510 28.863749 37.435736 48.376239
2025-12-14 6.076790 9.801908 14.844991 21.950770 31.463614 43.508974 59.634723
2025-12-21 4.321318 7.869761 13.083401 20.933281 32.044224 46.778059 67.304111
2025-12-28 3.484933 7.039430 12.629612 21.505727 34.624689 52.640439 78.490736
2026-01-04 2.792830 6.251299 12.060096 21.753533 36.656937 57.772368 88.866109
2026-01-11 2.290888 5.657785 11.671332 22.169565 38.884478 63.218537 99.857132
2026-01-18 1.926057 5.223443 11.459119 22.798401 41.419779 69.178280 111.779326
2026-01-25 1.503316 4.549202 10.697617 22.396457 42.265905 72.644626 120.219000
2026-02-01 1.238886 4.143106 10.355453 22.648092 44.129841 77.675124 131.091874
2026-02-08 0.962730 3.616554 9.678330 22.202039 44.772351 80.820044 139.239522
2026-02-15 0.727579 3.105920 8.932110 21.519273 44.924161 83.155630 146.200507
2026-02-22 0.610765 2.906433 8.864008 22.205174 47.630580 89.895800 160.531715
2026-03-01 0.455348 2.513954 8.280068 21.802966 48.389409 93.560106 170.310969
2026-03-08 0.361422 2.281032 8.026167 22.035369 50.296616 99.176785 183.349700
2026-03-15 0.245626 1.880126 7.241135 21.014777 49.757144 100.631551 189.756444
2026-03-22 0.201459 1.759045 7.183066 21.588951 52.291760 107.415070 205.001417
2026-03-29 0.157973 1.605976 6.995932 21.837502 54.192039 113.164320 218.724297
2026-04-05 0.126252 1.488864 6.888036 22.254782 56.444732 119.609023 233.787274
2026-04-12 0.103682 1.406540 6.870424 22.885495 59.161847 126.972385 250.594237
2026-04-19 0.072547 1.221771 6.461396 22.482353 59.704237 130.437898 260.923099
2026-04-26 0.055469 1.121251 6.316502 22.734739 61.630443 136.477293 275.790351
2026-05-03 0.037082 0.968494 5.928921 22.287354 62.013711 139.675108 285.852829